2023 Small Business Outlook

2021 was one of the roughest years on record in the world of small business. 2022 showed that things have significantly improved – but small business owners are still not quite as optimistic as previous years as they dive into 2023.

What does the future hold?

TMC Financing surveyed their portfolio of funding recipients in California, Arizona, Nevada and Oregon to understand how they are feeling about the upcoming year. The news was not quite as optimistic as last year’s results according to the 313 small business owners that completed the survey.

Here are some important highlights:

  • 41 percent of business owners surveyed expect to hire in 2023.
  • 77 percent said they do not plan to refinance during the year.
  • 86 percent of respondents said the SBA 504 loan helped their business.

Let’s take a closer look at what our survey respondents had to say.


In 2022, 59% of small business owners surveyed saw their revenue increase. 21% said their revenue was the same as the previous year, and 19% said their total revenue decreased.

By comparison, 64% predicted a revenue increase in 2022, 29% predicted a constant revenue, and only 7% believed their revenue would decrease during 2022.

Looking ahead, 49% of respondents predict 2023 will see an increase in revenue. 17% expect their revenues to decline in the coming year. 34% say the revenue picture will likely remain status quo through 2023.

Hiring & Expansion

One of the essential effects of credit is creating jobs. Credit can be thought of as the life-blood of a community because it fosters the conditions needed for re-investment. By leveraging funds obtained through TMC Financing, our clients have created jobs across four states (Arizona, California, Nevada and Oregon).

4,953 jobs will be created or retained from TMC Financing’s borrowers that funded a loan in 2022.

Ready financing at fixed rates will become even more critical in 2023 as interest rates across the board have increased. In this climate, it might be heartening to know just how many borrowers expect to grow their business:

  • 40% expect to hire in 2023
  • 52% expect to maintain their current headcount
  • 8% expect to reduce their headcount in 2023

What about business expansion? The majority of respondents said they had no immediate plans for it, at 72%. 17% said they planned to purchase a new building, and 6% said they expected to lease a property. 5% are unsure.

A majority of SBA 504 loan-holders who are good standing with their current loan have the opportunity to take out additional loans if they need to. A business can take out multiple SBA 504 loans! With that in mind, qualifying small business owners can examine their options to make a purchase before deciding to lease property.


Business owners tend to focus their refinancing activity on times when a major swing in interest rates offers them the opportunity to save money. Due to rising interest rates, we have seen a recent uptick in business owners that want to refinance their variable rate loan into and SBA 504 fixed rate.

However, according to our portfolio, 2023 is not seen as the time our business owners want to refinance.

78% of those surveyed say they do not plan to refinance in 2023.  Only 4% said they will refinance, while 18% said they were not sure due to interest rates or other factors.

SBA 504

The SBA 504 loan is specially designed to provide growing small businesses with the financing they need to buy commercial property, refinance, or renovate an existing property – including refitting a property with energy-efficient technology. With below-market, fixed interest rates and low down payment, it puts entrepreneurs’ visions within reach.

What do business owners say about the SBA 504 loan?

This is just a brief sampling of their responses to the question “Has the 504 loan helped your business?”

  • “It helped us secured our building and gave us confidence to grow.”
  • “Allowed me to purchase a property i wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise. Will likely rent half of property to cover entire expense or even make money going forward”
  • “Not paying these ridiculously rents that’s happening today.”
  • “It gave our business stability.”
  • “The 504 program allowed me to purchase the building that I work out of. The program has allowed me to fix rent cost, increase my profits, and will have an asset when I go to sell my business.”
  • “I own my building! This is the key to my baseline retirement plan. “
  • “Our four 504 loans have enabled our rapid growth”
  • “It is what has allowed us to exist. We bought our property with this loan, which is what has allowed us to get through the last few years.”
  • “It gave us the ability to buy our building… which meant we would never have to worry about rents increasing.”

In total, an outstanding 87% of respondents said the SBA 504 loan has helped their business.

TMC Financing provided $623 million in total SBA 504 financing in 2022.


Contact us today to learn more about the SBA 504 loan and whether it might be right for you.


View Press Release.